Unemployment Life- Part 3
Creative Destruction in the Job Market
Remote work, universal basic income, and recent union legal battles are all manifestations of a shift in the definition and expectation of “work” in the 21st century.
But technology and progress have churned jobs and the ways people contribute in society for centuries. As needs change and new innovations emerge, the types of jobs which exist change with it.
Economist Joseph Schumpeter coined this phenomenon “Creative Destruction”
Most textbooks broadly define the eras of works in 3 ages.
Agrarian Age —> Industrial Age —>Knowledge Age
The Agrarian age sprung up with the advent of settlements and farming.
The Industrial age followed the Industrial Revolution (obviously) of the 19th Century. People moved off the farms and into the factories.
The Knowledge Age followed the Information Technology revolution moving people from the factories in front of assembly lines to the offices in front of computer screens.
With each Age transition, people migrate towards new jobs which provide new value. Now, with the coming wave of A.I. tools and automation, the knowledge work Millennials trained for and expected to partake in may be going away just like factory work or farm work before that.
Reasonable people can disagree on the speed of change, the breadth of impact and the veracity of this changing landscape but it would be naïve to think new innovation will not happen at all or that you will not be affected.
Luddites - someone who is opposed or resistant to new technologies. The term "Luddite fallacy" is used by economists about the fear that technological unemployment inevitably generates structural unemployment
So, if this progression continues, where does that leave workers? We replaced muscle power with machines and now brain power with A.I.
I see a couple options for what the next Age of work may look like. We’ll call it the “Social” age.
Agrarian Age—> Industrial Age—>Knowledge Age —> Social Age
In the Social age of work, the labor involved focuses on providing a human touch to an experience. Sometimes figuratively. Sometimes literally. I think the traits of Social Age jobs of the 21st Century break down into 4 general categories.
1. “People Skills”
When we say “People” skills, we mean more than just being polite on a Customer Service phone call. People skills include things like listening, empathy, physical touch, leadership & motivation, and creating an anxiety reducing & pleasant environment for people
Nurses/Physical Therapists/Mental Health workers
Experience Coordinators (Think the Guy who takes a group White Water rafting/skydiving/tour guides etc.)
Thought Leaders and Personalities
The Oldest Profession
Look I’m not gonna lie, there’s a reason prostitutes have existed since time immemorial. People crave physical touch. My guess is society will have to reckon with its value at some point otherwise we’ll be seeing sex A.I. robots and a bigger black market emerging in time.
I think the current Marijuana/THC legalization efforts are a fair framework of how things could trend. Slow at first, then quickly moving mainstream.
“Wisdom” & “Trust” Jobs
I call this the “attaboy” role. People often need someone they trust to give them the “thumbs up” that what they’re learning or attempting makes sense or has merit. That person is usually older and more experienced in the field. Their value add is affirming the efforts for people less confident or less experienced in a field of work
Board of Directors to an Venture
Teachers
Master/apprentice arrangements
Creator Economy, Project Coordination & Entertainment Jobs
Creators, Coordinators and Entertainers will be a last bastion of human spark not matched by a machine. A.I. can read every police procedural series/show ever written then spit out a new script without assistance but it cannot act, direct, build the set, motivate the team, sell the show to fans or smile and wink at the camera on queue to make women blush.
Similar can be said of complex coordination among project teams. An A.I. can send a calendar reminder for a staff meeting or mark deadlines and paperwork but it cannot generate the results of shrewd inter office politics, or horse trading among project leaders to make headway and break logjams of corporate zombie projects.
Scrum Master / Project Manager roles
Social Media Influencers
Comedians/Actors/Show Runners
Capital and Resource ownership
Oh, don’t think I forgot about these folks. Anytime a productivity boom occurs at least a few people skyrocket to the top of the pyramid and their “job” is to own, manage and profit off the productivity gains. They won’t go away and may end up having even more power over time. Think Rockefeller, Carnegie and Vanderbilt of the Industrial age or Jobs, Gates, and Bezos of the Internet age.
Venture Capital / Equity Stakes
Intellectual Property Ownership (Patents, A.I. models, Biochemical technology)
Hard asset ownership (Oil, farm land, rare earth minerals)
That’s all I got. Until next week-
Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
Reach out! Maybe I’ll do a full post on the topic or as a Q&A
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