Where do we end up in a world with A.I. by 2030 and beyond? As cute as image generators and automatic blog posting by ChatGPT can be, the real intelligence explosion in A.I. and the subsequent world altering implications will come with the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligence. (Think back to the Efficient Market Hypothesis calibers of efficiency) Here is where the game changer advances occur on par or beyond building the first nuclear weapon.
Some Possibilities of the Future
A.I. will keep getting better into the future. A lot better. Using historical growth from just the past few years, and assuming all the build announcements from big players come true, the trajectory forward for A.I. ‘s compute power dwarfs Moore’s Law and any resemblance of traditional ideas of compounding growth.
In the best case, all our problems are solved! Work will soon come to an end, diseases are cured, new amazing technology will be unlocked. We reach the singularity and merge with machines to become immortal, all knowing gods.
It’s also possible the whole growth of A.I. runs into some techie limiting factor like the speed of light for which data travels, or the “data wall” limiting new inputs for training a model better. If this occurs, A.I. may stall out as just a great science project or attraction at EPCOT. Even so, workarounds will inevitably arise to keep things moving forward over time similar to how Moore’s Law has held for decades despite temporary blockers in chip and processing power until someone figures out a new way.
And there in lies the rub. We simply can’t know what could happen. The moment A.I. models become more intelligent than humans by whatever metrics we choose, we lose a level of understanding of what they are doing and why. Further, the transition of the economy, society’s values and norms, and peoples’ general self-worth relative to A.I. will be tested and stretched.
What happens to all the accountants when A.I. can do the books continuously and instantly? What happens to software engineers when A.I. can code a full app instantly and more efficiently than any human? What happens to plumbers, roofers, electricians and truck drivers once A.I. has a physical robot avatar to manipulate the world or the brain put into a self-driving car ?
No one has the answer but the situation is coming up sooner than many people realize or choose to admit.
Getting More Information On A.I.
I went down a rabbit hole of briefings on what is to come in the next few years and it’s going to be wild.
I recommend giving a listen to these guys. Jeremie and Edouard Harris co-founded Gladstone AI to promote responsible AI R&D adoption by designing and deploying safeguards against AI-driven national security threats.
I’d also recommend sitting down to read the recently published white paper on what the next 5-10 years may shape out as based on the trajectory we are on now. It was written by a former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. His job was to design “superalignment” principles to ensure A.I. models were working for the benefit of humans and were under control.
Another recommendation is subscribing to The Rundown AI daily newsletter. It’s free and provides a quick recap with links of the latest news and happenings in the A.I. arena. You can find new tools, tutorials, and even gossip(https://www.therundown.ai/)
Lastly, I would recommend buckling up for a wild decade ahead. Good Luck.
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Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
Reach out! Maybe I’ll do a full post on the topic or as a Q&A
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