Rarely do I give straight trade ideas or tips to people because
a) There are literally millions of people slinging snake oil stock tips on the internet
b) I’m not licensed or certified to provide investment advice
dodging litigation for any financial liability
c)That’s not really the point of this feed
But Copper has been gnawing at me for some time now. Copper futures formed a “squint and we’ll call it close enough” Double Top formation back in June and immediately showed respect for it by pulling back 25%.
Daily Chart
So now what? I think we’re at the bottom finally and on the verge of major shattering of the double top towards new highs in the red metal through 2025 and into 2026/27.
Traders shorting the double top in June 2024
Why?
The Fundamental Analysis
Copper as an industrial metal is used for all sorts of purposes so price tends to follow boom - bust cycles. (See housing boom bust vs copper prices in 2006-2008)
We’ll what’s the biggest boom at the moment?
3 piece suits ?
A.I. chips, A.I. data centers and the cooling components to make both work need copper to manufacture the parts.
Demand for copper may nearly double in a relatively short time frame due to the A.I. ARMs race heating up.
Copper Miners hearing about NVIDIA’s demand forecast
The Technical Analysis
The charts concur. On a longer term basis, copper is already pretty expensive but seems to be coiling towards a break out.
A lot of pressure building
Zooming in, can’t keep a good bull run down with an ascending triangle pattern as a potential tip of the spear upwards in the coming months.
Lastly, for an equities equivalent, you could go with CPER - an ETF which holds the futures contracts for the raw metal, rather than many copper ETFs which hold stocks of copper miners.
It eliminates the business risk elements of the miner ETFs like interest expenses and regulatory changes to leave you with a straight metals play.
Lastly, how is this NOT a bigger stock charting meme?
“I don’t even see the price. All I see is Buy, Buy, Sell”
“I don’t even see the candlesticks, all i see is Support, Resistance, breakout”
There’s like a 100 of them!
Interested in being on the Trader Dads Podcast in 2024? Shoot me an email! I’d love to have subscribers on to sit for a discussion
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Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
Reach out! Maybe I’ll do a full post on the topic or as a Q&A
