Hard to believe we’re already halfway through the year! Time to look back at some of the predictions I made in January to see where things stand. As always, we have some Good, Bad, and Ugly. No judgement (yet). We still have 6 more months to go.
My original Predictions in BOLD. Thoughts and proof on progress or on missing the mark to go along. How often do you really go back and hold yourself accountable?
—S&P 500 finishes 2024 at 5200or up approx. 9% on the year.
Status - Good
As of this writing, the S&P500 is sitting at 5320 or up approx. 12.5% on the year. We’ve seen a lot of acceptance among research and forecast analysts that the path of least resistance continues higher. This include lots of revised estimates higher across the street during the Spring and a bearish capitulation by former darling Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley who now holds a 5300 year end target.
—There will be fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than the market currently expects. 4 cuts at most in 2024
Status - Good
Back In January, consensus was for 6 rate cuts in 2024 but as of midyear, we’ve seen exactly zero. Goldman Sachs left its forecast unchanged and continues to expect two rate cuts this year — in July and November — while general market forces have wobbled anywhere between no rate cuts to upwards of 4 cuts as inflation and jobs data comes in each month with no clear consensus yet on how things will settle.
— Stealth bailouts and liquidity programs will continue beyond March 2024
Status - Ugly
The Fed did announce a higher-than-expected tapering of its QT program in May but overall, banks and markets have been left to fend for themselves to find liquidity and solvency with whatever tools are normally left for them.
World News & Politics
— 2024 U.S. Election is a legal whirlwind of wild and unorthodox events yet no one really cares. We see a rematch of 2020. Trump wins and returns to office
Status - Good
So far, so good. The Candidates are in place. Debates are scheduled. Mud is slinging. Juries voted Guilty. Yet we seem to be right back in the same place as 4 years ago.
— India and Turkey becoming recurring news topics as a tug -of - war builds for them to side among China, Russia or the U.S for regional influence and dominance
Status - Bad
If India and Turkey have been a topic of conversation lately then I must not have been paying attention. I’m sure there’s plenty of happenings but nothing to make the nightly news I can recall.
—Climate change conversation drifts from prevention of rising temperatures to coping with a hotter world .
Status - Bad
Hear a lot of observations in the news ending with “…due to climate change” but not a lot of solutions beyond needing to reduce emissions to hit Paris Climate Accord targets.
—A.I. continues to show enormous gain of function in the lab for narrow tasks and research purposes but fails to hit critical momentum for a viable value proposition in enterprise organizations any deeper than it already has
Status -Bad
I’m still careful to judge the exact meaning of “A.I.” in any marketing materials presented but the explosion of tools and integrations has been swift and in your face. Google searches now pop up an AI answer immediately. (Quality is debatable) Corporate Finance tools are slipping in A.I. tasks like Legal Doc review and the foundational models for use like TensorFlow and AWS SageMaker are clearly going to be the new basis for the next generation of application suites.
—2024 Paris Olympics are the lowest watched of modern games
Status - Good
Name an athlete competing in the Olympics beside Simone Biles. I’ll wait. With the way the world’s going, I just hope we don’t see a repeat of Munich
How the ’World’s sexiest athlete’ Alica Schmidt is not on every NBC Promo Ad is beyond me
—Streaming services like MAX and Netflix are hit with a surprising revenue cap as Ad supported models come back into vogue
Status - Bad
While not explicitly stating it in earnings calls, the consolidation and price hike period for streaming services are well underway to reach profitability. Disney+ now has HULU right on the homepage. Anything owned by Paramount is now Paramount+ Meanwhile, FreeVee and PlutoTV are actively marketing themselves as alternatives with ads but are not the giant killers or GO-TO model yet.
Moonshot / Game Changer Thoughts
— RFK. Jr and his TBD running mate create enough excitement and momentum to actually lock up an electoral college vote(s) somewhere in the country as a 3rd party candidate
Status - Tentatively Good
RFK Jr. has announced his running mate and polls are showing RFK Jr. is at least in the hunt enough to be worth bashing by both other candidates. Signatures requirements are still in progress for him to end up on every state’s ballot but with 5 months to go, it’s not impossible to see him spoil the party for someone and actually put a dent in the electoral vote count.
—The “value” of human touch and social interaction starts a new realm of price discovery, marketability and acceptance (or pushback)
Status - Ugly
Things look to be going in the other direction as stories about A.I. OnlyFans pages, robot girlfriends, and a general uptick of young men simply giving up on meeting a nice girl are drifting into comedian podcasts, subreddits, panic Op/Eds and even social media ads. Joined with the Fertility rate declining, my potential audience of “Dads” may be rapidly dwindling in the years to come.
A.I. helps scientists have full form conversations with intelligent animals such as bees, crows and dolphins
Status - Good
Lots of small step progress on this one. Check out some of the efforts. Here, Here, and Here.
Not quite yet
We’ll see.
Thanks for reading Trader Dads! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Interested in being on the Trader Dads Podcast in 2024? Shoot me an email! I’d love to have subscribers on to sit for a discussion
TRADERDADS MAILBAG
Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
Reach out! Maybe I’ll do a full post on the topic or as a Q&A
