We’re safely into 2025 and the results are in. Let’s see how things turn played out. (This is a long one)
Markets and The Economy
S&P 500 finishes 2024 at 5200 or up approx. 9% on the year.
Results - We were right at 5200 until about Labor Day before the Fall rally kicked off on the back of A.I. Stock optimism.
Always better to take a conservative tone on gains than to be disappointed, but wrong is wrong and I underestimated returns by a whopping 14%.
There will be fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than the market currently expects. 4 cuts at most in 2024
Results - 3 cuts on the year for 1.00% reduction in total.
Stealth bailouts and liquidity programs will continue beyond March 2024
Results - Banks are surprisingly resilient…for now.
The Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ended new loans on March 11, 2024 meaning banks who had cash shortages had to revert to normal lending mechanisms to cover their needs. The Fed essentially signaled bank solvency was generally OK.
However, the banking industry’s “cash under the mattress” pile represented by overnight repo volume has ended up picking up the slack for banks’ cash needs leaving liquidity buffers ridiculously low going into 2025.
With a new administration touting a reduction in spending, the banks seem to be praying treasury issuances decline enough so the US govt does not suck up the remaining excess cash in the banking system. A lot of volatility in banks could still be ahead.
World News & Politics
2024 U.S. Election is a legal whirlwind of wild and unorthodox events yet no one really cares. We see a rematch of 2020. Trump wins and returns to office
Results - Half Right. But let’s be honest, who could have honestly predicted the Democratic swap happening that late in campaign.
India and Turkey become recurring news topics as a tug -of - war builds for them to side among China, Russia or the U.S for regional influence and dominance
Results - U.S. media does not care
Very little mainstream or even alternative media coverage on India and Turkey this year that I came across. It’s a shame considering their size and impact. While China is slowly declining, India will be looking to take the top spot for population growth soon and Turkey is a biggest X factor in dictating control of the Ukraine- Russia post war trade relationship through the Turkey controlled straits near Istanbul.
Climate change conversation drifts from prevention of rising temperatures to coping with a hotter world .
Results - We’re more resigned to a hotter world now more than ever
Lifestyle and Pop Culture
A.I. continues to show enormous gain of function in the lab for narrow tasks and research purposes but fails to hit critical momentum for a viable value proposition in enterprise organizations any deeper than it already has
Results - This deserves it’s own post on the niche progress made across AI.
2024 Paris Olympics are the lowest watched of modern games
Results - Wrong
Paris Olympics viewership average led by NBC and Peacock was up 82% from the Tokyo Olympics, with a total audience delivery average of 30.4 million viewers, and the Opening Ceremony was the most watched since 2012, with 28.6 million viewers.
To be fair, I’m the guy who skips the super bowl some years so my finger was not really on the pulse of society here.
Streaming services like MAX and Netflix are hit with a surprising revenue cap as Ad supported models come back into vogue
Results - Not there yet but going that way
Netflix will have 90 million subscribers for its ad-supported service by the end of the year, vs. 70 million now with analysts expecting Netflix to earn $4.20 a share on sales of $10.12 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 31. In the year-earlier period, Netflix earned $2.11 a share on sales of $8.83 billion.
Meanwhile HBO MAX expects to “meaningfully exceed” its goal of $1 billion in streaming profit in 2025
For the free services, Tubi has continued to climb Nielsen’s monthly Gauge chart of total viewing via TV sets, outpacing Max, Peacock and Paramount+ and running neck and neck with the Roku Channel as the No. 2 free outlet after YouTube
Moonshot / Game Changer Thoughts
RFK. Jr and his TBD running mate create enough excitement and momentum to actually lock up an electoral college vote(s) somewhere in the country as a 3rd party candidate
Results -
The “value” of human touch and social interaction starts a new realm of price discovery, marketability and acceptance (or pushback)
Results - Getting there. A few hit shows and movies have entertained the premise more recently. Articles on “sugar daddy” relationships being more common in expensive cities are also bubbling up and an an onslaught of HIMS and HERS Instagram ads for anyone over 30 are all chipping away at the acceptability in society. It’s like Marijuana culture in 2004 right now.
A.I. helps scientists have full form conversations with intelligent animals such as bees, crows and dolphins
Results - Not there yet but I’m not crazy. They’re trying
We’ll see.
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Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
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